當日 九人簽到 二組題字
雄維強 - 黃玉鳳 : 遊南北錦繡山水 暢東西 人文景觀
蘇錦坤: 結德言而為佩 援雅範以自綏
敬請踴躍參加 我的中國經驗與其限制 (2011年1月8日)
座談題目: 我的中國經驗與其限制。
時間: 2011年1月8日 周六 10:00-12:00
地址：台北市新生南路三段88號2樓
電話：（02） 23650127
參考資料:
中国政治 Politics in China
中國密碼︰中國崛起對西方的影響 Der China Code
專家：中國土地使用政策可能逆轉
渣打銀行分析師王志浩在一份報告中指出﹐有跡象顯示中國政府似乎準備放棄數十年來一直堅持的以農業自給自足為目標的土地使用政策了。
等等 信手舉例
中國現在或可稱之為"泡沫王國"
股市 房地產 以及.....中國互聯網初創企業蒸蒸日上 但泡沫風險隱現
美國矽谷的互聯網泡沫似乎也蔓延到了中國。有些投資者擔心﹐隨著互聯網初創企業融資交易的驟增和企業估值水平的飆升﹐市場可能面臨過熱風險。
鲁迅年谱(增订本1-4卷)
譬如說 我們今天可以用它在1934年2月的大事記 各打今日的共產黨和國民黨大板:
"2月19日 蔣介石....發起臭名昭著的"新生活運動" 鼓吹封建道德 妄圖用所謂"禮義廉恥"來欺騙人民 加強其法西斯統治.....
同日 國民黨下令尊孔 規定八月 (原文如此)二十七日為孔誕紀念日......"(鲁迅年谱 第四冊 頁14)
China steers automakers toward an electric future
2010/12/22
Electric taxis are topped up at a power charging station in Shenzhen, China. (Tetsu Kobayashi)
GUANGZHOU, China--If the size of its booth at the China International Automobile Exhibition here is any indication, the road ahead appears to be smooth for electric vehicle maker BYD Auto.
The Shenzhen-based battery company-turned-automaker, which in 2008 welcomed investor Warren Buffett as a major shareholder, occupies about 1,800 square meters of floor space at the exhibition hall. It is BYD's largest display at the annual show, which kicked off Monday.
About one-third of the space was devoted to new eco-friendly vehicles.
China, which has emerged as the world's largest auto market, is shifting gears to promote lower-emission forms of transportation under a government initiative.
Hoping for a slice of the action, foreign makers are rushing to set up production bases in China. But high costs resulting from a lack of infrastructure, such as power-charging stations, constitute a roadblock.
According to a government draft plan on energy conservation and developing new energy industries covering 2011 to 2020, Beijing plans to spend 100 billion yuan (1.2 trillion yen, or $15 billion) to promote the development and sales of eco-friendly vehicles.
The Chinese government envisages having 5 million EVs and plug-in hybrids on the road by 2020, as well as sales of about 15 million regular hybrids a year. Over the same period, the number of electric charging stations will be increased to 4,000 by 2015 and to 10,000 by 2020.
The catalysts for the push to electric in the rapidly growing market are concerns about pollution and depleted resources. However, the number of vehicles owned per 1,000 Chinese is still just one-tenth that of Japan.
Even with a growth rate of around 10 percent a year, the Chinese auto market is expected to balloon to 30 million units five years down the road and to 50 million units in 10 years.
At the same time, Chinese manufacturers are pinning their hopes on turning the tables on Japanese, U.S. and European automakers in the budding market for EVs.
"With regards to electric vehicles, everyone is at the starting line," Toshiyuki Shiga, chief operating officer at Nissan Motor Co., said in introducing the company's Leaf EV at the Guangzhou motor show.
Depending on Beijing's policy decisions, Nissan eventually hopes to begin local production of the Leaf. The automaker will start road trials for the Leaf in Wuhan, Hubei province, where it has a local joint venture, with help from the local government.
Shanghai GM, a joint venture between Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp. and General Motors Co., showcased GM's Chevy Volt and its own electric-powered concept car at the Guangzhou show.
A Chinese engineer at the booth boasted that the company hopes to "make the electric car a people's car, and popularize it."
Toyota Motor Corp. and the government-affiliated China Automotive Technology and Research Center are also planning to conduct joint trials of Toyota's Prius Plug-in Hybrid in Tianjin.
Meanwhile, the same hurdles facing electric cars everywhere--high costs, limited range and a shortage of charging stations--also prevail in China.
In Shenzhen, considered a front-runner in EV use, efforts are under way to promote all-electrics for public transportation. In February, BYD and the local government-affiliated bus company set up the Pengcheng Electric Taxi Co., a joint venture operating a fleet of 50 electric-powered taxis.
But while some drivers boast of being able to cover more than 200 kilometers on a single charge, with only five charging stations in the city, they are careful not to run out of electricity. Sometimes that means having to turn down long-haul customers heading outside the city.
According to a Pengcheng official, there have been no cases of taxis running out of energy while on duty during the past six months.
Government subsidies offered to promote purchases of electric cars could help in promoting the purchase of more electric taxis, but the 300,000-yuan price tag is still nearly double that of conventional taxis.
While plans were to have 100 electric cabs rolling by the end of the year, currently only 50 are operating, a far cry from the 13,000 ordinary cabs that serve the city.
Guangzhou introduced 26 electric buses in November, but questions hang over their success. Aside from the 1.7 million yuan spent for each bus, an old problem remains a technical obstacle: heavy rainfall.
Officials said the buses run the risk of an electrical short when roads become flooded, and rainwater reaches up to 15 centimeters deep in the southern city.
(This article was written by Tetsu Kobayashi and Keiko Yoshioka.)
Small companies follow clients to China, with mixed results
2010/12/22
Atsutoshi Hanawa, left, president of Tokyo Chokoku Marking Products Co., checks on work at the company's Shenzhen base. (Kyoko Isa)
Editor's note: This concludes a two-part series on local industries and small businesses turning to China.
* * *
In a struggle for survival, many small and medium-sized Japanese companies are setting up bases in China, hoping its fast-growing economy will translate into a return to profitability.
Some have expanded their businesses with outstanding technology, but many find themselves forced to follow the moves to China of their clients.
However, success is not guaranteed.
"The popular view is that of the Japanese companies that move to China, one-third are successful, one-third have average results, and one-third fail," said Mitsuhiro Seki, a professor at Hitotsubashi University's Graduate School of Commerce and Management.
According to a 2010 government white paper, the percentage of small and medium-sized companies with overseas subsidiaries increased from 8.7 percent in fiscal 2000 to 12.1 percent in fiscal 2007. The ratio of companies with subsidiaries in China has risen while those for Europe and the United States have decreased.
One successful example is Tokyo Chokoku Marking Products Co.
In September, company President Atsutoshi Hanawa attended the International Manufacturing Technology Show in Chicago, one of the three major machine tools exhibitions in the world.
The company's booth displayed its new product, the Markin Box, a small device that carves characters stored in a computer program onto metal. In November, two U.S. companies signed contracts to serve as agents for Tokyo Chokoku.
Sales of the product will begin in earnest next year.
Tokyo Chokoku began operations in 1919, handling the engraving of serial numbers or production dates onto industrial products, such as automobiles, and the manufacturing of engraving machines.
However, after the company's clients moved their production bases overseas, Hanawa decided to develop original products, arguing that the limits had been reached for a business to only work as a subcontractor.
In July 2009, the company established a base in Shenzhen, Guangdong province. It is located in a rental industrial complex created in 1992 by Japanese executives who had relocated their plants to China and wanted to provide support for other Japanese companies moving to the country.
Five local employees at the Shenzhen base assemble the Markin Box for Tokyo Chokoku. A company has been established in Singapore to sell the products in Thailand and Vietnam, with a future eye on sales in China.
The company's headquarters in Tokyo has 22 employees and annual sales of about 300 million yen ($3.58 million).
"While it may be reckless for a small plant company such as us to move to China, there are things we can do because we are more flexible," Hanawa said. "I want to demonstrate that."
Another success story is MDI Group (Shanghai) Co.
Although the company has only 27 employees, it is now the leader in Shanghai for cleaning and maintenance of air-conditioning systems and ducts. It is also in charge of air-conditioning maintenance in China's version of the Shinkansen.
MDI Group President Yasumasa Shimizu, 49, set up a maintenance company in Aichi Prefecture 20 years ago. It was a third-tier subcontractor, and its orders began decreasing from 2003.
Deciding that the company could not survive without change, Shimizu visited China for the first time in 2005, after a client moved its operations to Shanghai.
He was encouraged by the many skyscrapers and huge industrial complexes in the city.
"If there are buildings, there will also be a need for air-conditioning maintenance," Shimizu thought. "This is a chance for us."
However, he was not sure if a foreign company could establish a maintenance company in China.
The Communist Party secretary in charge of Shanghai's development district asked Shimizu: "There is no maintenance sector to speak of in China. We want you to come, but will you teach us your know-how without hiding anything? Will it be all right if subordinates quit and strike out on their own?"
Shimizu immediately responded, "Yes," and the official stamped the seal of approval to begin work right away.
In fiscal 2009, the company's sales were about 100 million yen. This fiscal year, the figure is expected to exceed 200 million yen.
Although Shimizu sold off the Japanese entity in 2007, he created a new company in Japan last September and has begun work there.
It is a prime example of a reverse move into Japan.
Shimizu said if there is a record of doing business with Japanese companies in China, business dealings can be conducted directly with those companies in Japan.
Shimizu is trying to convince other companies in the maintenance sector of the merits of moving to China.
"Even a small company can still make the move if it has the technology," Shimizu said. "All companies will just wear themselves out if they decide to remain in Japan."
Companies thinking about moving to China visit Shimizu's Shanghai office on a monthly basis.
Hisada Corp., an Aichi Prefecture-based company that handles metal stamping, has also established a Shenzhen base, which accepts orders from Japan.
In 2002, the company's president, Yasushi Hisada, 53, brought an old stamping machine with him to China.
After the company's biggest client moved its production base to Thailand, Hisada decided, "I will develop new customers from scratch in China and do work that is not subcontracting."
Sales in China soon overtook those of the Japanese company, reaching 2 billion yen in 2007.
In October, Hisada received an order for a metal mold rather than stamping work from a major manufacturer in Japan. The order was placed because Japanese companies would not have completed the products in time.
Hisada operated 24 hours a day for the products and exported them to Japan. Sales of metal molds now appear to have the makings of a new business operation.
Although professor Seki said the chances of success rise if the company president personally goes to China, he predicts increasingly tough conditions in China.
"The opportunities for companies in the manufacturing sector to make the move have entered the final stage," Seki said. "Chinese companies are making rapid advances, and in five years there will be no room to enter the market."
But many Japanese companies have no choice but to take the risk.
In Aichi Prefecture, small companies have set up plants in China in line with the transfer of automakers' production facilities to the country. The rush of moves was believed to have abated by 2006, but the situation has changed drastically since the 2008 collapse of U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers.
"Even much smaller companies are being forced to move to China," said Yasuhiro Harada, an official with the Tokai Japan-China Trade Center.
Price wars have flared in the Chinese market over automobiles, intensifying the pressure on Japanese parts manufacturers to reduce their prices. The appreciation of the yen has prompted Japanese automakers to buy parts from Chinese companies.
Parts manufacturers are increasingly concerned that unless they move production to China, they will lose all their work. However, most do not have the financial wherewithal for the transfer.
The Tokai Japan-China Trade Center is cooperating in a plan to establish a small rental industrial complex that could provide support to such small companies in terms of handling customs procedures and employing local workers.
Seminars for small and medium-sized companies thinking about moving to China are very popular now. Some seminars teach companies how to leave the Chinese market.
In October, a legal office and a consulting company co-sponsored a seminar in Tokyo that was attended by 350 people. Explanations were given about company liquidation procedures and steps required when employees are fired.
"Small companies cannot afford failures," one lecturer explained. "If you are thinking about entering the market, it will be important to also think about an exit strategy that includes leaving the market."
Masumi Mizuno, who heads the consulting firm that co-sponsored the seminar, said, "There is increasing interest among companies that had been considering whether they should move to China and still have the financial strength to make the move because they think this could be their last chance after confronting the downturn due to the financial crisis."
(This article was written by Kyoko Isa and Kentaro Koyama.)
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陳老師
這次是"座談會" 我們沒計畫讓個別成員報告其"中國之旅"
主旨是參與者綜合其有限的"中國精驗" 思考/猜測中國的未來發展和台灣如何因應
現在報名參加的有陳忠信先生....
剛剛陳忠信先生問我為什麼想辦這座談會
我認為近30年來中國的崛起之事實 是我輩一生中最重要的而需面對的議題
昔日翻譯Herbert Simon 的 Models of My Life 書中他說到
他們有些朋友每年會撥出近一周的時間去思考人類的重要議題
我認為他們是了結的
我個人親身與中國接觸20年 用過7-8本台胞證 我自己的心得是什麼呢ㄅ
在1998年我們的網站 就有幾篇談這方面的問題
現在或許是另外一回的學習
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感謝胡小姐報名參加"我的中國經驗與其限制 (2011年1月8日)"
David 從美國和-戴老師給的信如附 謝謝他們
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Dear HC
很遺憾每次的讀書會都在週六 與我的上課時間相衝 被迫只好缺席
如果改為週日該有多好
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鍾叔叔,
這個座談會聽起來真的很有意思. 如您所說, 中國的掘起真的是我們這個世代最重要的議題之一. 紐約時報天天都有關於中國的報導, 但真實性/客觀性就不得而之了.
可惜您那邊沒有電腦, 不然如果能有個conference call的設定我就能打進去聽了. 再不然, 不知道鍾叔叔有沒有意思把座談會錄起來放在youtube上?
David
謝謝你的建議 我考慮張羅一下
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窮途末路的孔夫子學院孔子和平奖！
"孔夫子學院"的"普及" 也只是個殼子，是一個不懂得克己復禮的獨裁政權的愚民政策。
中國共產黨和中國國民黨都已走到窮途末路了，
China Knowledge@Wharton
China's Property Bubble: Can It Be Deflated Safely, or Will It Burst?
China is likely in the midst of a real estate bubble, according to faculty from Wharton and the Guanghua School of Management, who spoke during a joint symposium held at Peking University in Beijing on March 10. “Clearly, in China there are cautionary signs,” said Wharton real estate professor Susan M. Wachter, who also spoke about the fragility of the U.S. market and the need for a new regulatory approach. During his talk, Guanghua finance professor Xinzhong Xu noted, “The more difficult question that nobody can answer is: When is this bubble [in China] going to burst?”
http://www.knowledgeatwharton.
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